The Saudi economy faced a difficult test in 2026 as oil activity declined in the second quarter, but the overall picture was not one of contraction. Non-oil activities continued to grow, consumption remained strong, and unemployment among Saudis stabilized at levels below its original Vision 2030 target, while tourism, investment, and spending on projects continued. On Saudi Arabia’s 96th National Day, we read the figures not as a list of achievements, but to understand: how has the structure of the economy changed, what has been achieved, and where does the gap remain?

How should we read a country’s economy on its National Day?

We could begin with the size of GDP, revenues, the number of jobs, or the value of the financial market. But each individual figure tells only part of the story.

That is why the more important question is not: How large has the Saudi economy become?

Instead: How has the way it operates changed?

In 2026, the Saudi economy faced a useful test for answering this question. Oil activity came under severe pressure in the second quarter, while other parts of the economy continued to grow.

This contrast is the starting point for the report “96 Years Read in Numbers,” prepared by a team of students from Al Yamamah University as part of “Yamamah Insights” on the occasion of Saudi Arabia’s 96th National Day.

When oil declines… what happens to the rest of the economy?

In the second quarter of 2026, oil activities declined by 24.8% year on year, according to the data on which the report is based.

“Year on year” simply means comparing a period with the corresponding period a year earlier.

The decline in oil activity was large enough to subtract about 5.4 percentage points from the economy’s growth rate, while real GDP as a whole fell by 4.7%.

But the striking figure came from elsewhere.

During the same period, non-oil activities grew by 0.9%, while government activities also grew by 0.9%.

Why does that matter?

Because in an economy fully dependent on a single sector, a shock to that sector is expected to quickly spread to other activities.

The fact that other sectors remained in positive territory means that the sources of economic activity have become more diversified.

This is where we need to understand the meaning of economic diversification.

Diversification does not mean that oil has disappeared from the economy, nor that its revenues are no longer important.

It simply means that the economy now has multiple sources of production, income, jobs, and activity, so that all its parts do not move in the same direction every time oil moves.

Diversification is not a single number

One of the report’s key ideas is that diversification cannot be measured by a single indicator.

There are at least three different questions:

What does the economy produce?

Where does the government obtain its revenues?

And what does the Kingdom sell to the world?

The answer may differ each time.

According to the figures cited in the report, non-oil activities accounted for approximately 55% of real GDP in 2025 under the methodology used, while non-oil revenues accounted for 45% of total revenues in the first half of 2026.

In trade, non-oil exports represented approximately 44% of total exports in 2025, according to the report’s analysis.

So when we hear the phrase “non-oil economy,” we should immediately ask:

Are we talking about production?

Or government revenues?

Or exports?

Confusing them can lead to an inaccurate reading of economic reality.

What happened to public finances?

When revenues or core activities come under pressure, another question arises: how does the government respond?

General revenues in the first half of 2026 amounted to approximately 599.8 billion riyals, while expenditure reached approximately 759.8 billion riyals.

But the change in the deficit between the two quarters is more informative than the half-year figure.

The deficit stood at 125.7 billion riyals in the first quarter, then fell to 34.3 billion riyals in the second quarter, alongside an increase in revenues.

Public debt stood at approximately 33.9% of GDP at the end of June 2026, according to the report.

What does the debt-to-GDP ratio mean?

It is simply a comparison between the government’s debt and the amount the economy produces over a year.

Whenever we look at debt, it is not enough to ask about its size. We should also ask: what does it cost? How is it financed? In which currency? And what are the borrowed funds being used for?

That is why the figure alone does not tell the whole story.

Jobs: What does a decline in unemployment really mean?

The labor market may be one of the indicators that most directly affects people’s lives.

The unemployment rate among Saudis stood at 6.4%, according to the latest data covered by the report, compared with the original Vision 2030 target of 7%, before the target was later raised to 5%.

But what does the unemployment rate mean?

It is the percentage of people who are looking for work but cannot find it, out of the total number of people participating in the labor market.

This is where another indicator becomes important: the labor force participation rate.

Saudi women’s participation reached approximately 33.9%, compared with about 17% when the vision was launched, according to the figures reviewed in the report.

Thus, reading the labor market is not complete by simply knowing the number of unemployed people; it also requires knowing how many people entered the market in the first place and began looking for work.

The report also shows that the challenge is not distributed equally across all age groups. Unemployment among young people is higher than among older groups, making the transition from education to a first job one of the areas deserving attention.

What did consumers do during the disruption?

There is another way to read people’s confidence in the economy: what do they do with their money?

In April 2026, consumer spending reached approximately 133.9 billion riyals, up 17.5% year on year, according to the report.

When spending continues or rises during a period of uncertainty, it may indicate that households did not view the circumstances as a crisis requiring them to freeze consumption.

But it is important not to equate higher spending with greater well-being automatically.

Spending may rise because of population growth, higher prices, higher incomes, or changes in payment methods.

That is why the best approach is always to look at value, volume, and prices together.

And were prices under control?

Annual inflation in July 2026 stood at approximately 1.8%, according to the data cited in the report.

Inflation simply means the rate at which the prices of a broad basket of goods and services rise over time.

But the average conceals important differences.

The housing, water, electricity, and fuel category rose by 4.2%, driven by higher actual rents, while price pressures in other categories were lower.

This is an important point for readers.

When we hear that inflation is 1.8%, it does not mean that every product rose by 1.8%.

Rents may rise more, another product may become cheaper, and a third may remain unchanged, producing the final average.

Housing: From 47% to 66.24%

One of the socioeconomic indicators highlighted by the report is the rate of Saudi households that own their homes.

It reached 66.24%, compared with a baseline of 47% and a 2030 target of 70%.

In other words, approximately two-thirds of Saudi households now own their homes, according to the indicator used.

Less than four percentage points remain to reach the target.

But the real estate sector itself does not move in a single direction.

Prices vary between land, apartments, and villas; from one region to another; and between residential, commercial, and agricultural property.

This reminds us of an important rule: saying “real estate prices have risen” is not economically sufficient unless we know which property, where, and over what period.

Tourism: When spending stays within the economy

In the first quarter of 2026, tourism spending reached approximately 82.7 billion riyals, with 37.2 million visitors recorded, according to the report.

In 2025, visits reached 123 million, with spending amounting to approximately 304 billion riyals.

But the report points to an important difference between domestic and inbound tourism.

A tourist arriving from abroad brings new spending into the economy.

A resident who chooses to travel within the Kingdom instead of going abroad helps keep part of their spending within the domestic economy.

That is why tourism’s value is not measured solely by the number of visitors.

The more important economic question is: How much does the visitor spend? Where does that spending go? And how much of it remains within the economy?

Investment: What does an investor who can leave tell us?

Foreign investors’ holdings in the Saudi market amounted to approximately 437.9 billion riyals, according to the report, while foreign investment licenses rose by 252% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the same period of the previous year.

But an increase in the number of licenses does not automatically mean that the actual value of investments rose at the same rate.

A license permits an activity, while actual investment appears later in capital, projects, jobs, and production.

That is why the indicator is important, but it is more an indicator of interest and potential entry than a complete measure of funds actually invested.

This distinction between a “signal” and an “outcome” is essential when reading any economic figure.

Vision 2030: What has been achieved and what remains?

With four years remaining until 2030, the dashboard of indicators in the report presents an uneven picture, which is itself an important result.

Some indicators exceeded their targets early.

The Saudi unemployment rate surpassed the original target of 7%, so the target was raised to 5%.

Women’s labor force participation reached 33.9%, compared with a target of 30%.

The homeownership rate reached 66.24%, compared with a target of 70%.

Electronic payments exceeded their previous target.

Tourist visits reached 123 million after the target was raised to 150 million visits by 2030.

But indicators related to production, exports, and structural transformation naturally require more time.

A job may be created within months, but building an export industry that can compete in global markets requires factories, technology, capital, supply chains, and markets.

Therefore, progress at different speeds is not necessarily a contradiction; it may reflect the differing nature of each target.

What do the figures say on National Day?

National Day celebrations can be an occasion to reflect on what has been achieved.

But figures become more useful when we also use them to understand what has actually changed and what has not yet been completed.

The picture presented by the report “96 Years Read in Numbers” is not of an economy whose challenges have ended.

Rather, it is an economy whose structure has changed.

Oil remains a major component of production, revenues, and exports, but economic activity no longer moves as a single block alongside it.

The labor market has changed.

Tourism has expanded.

Payment methods have changed.

The homeownership rate has risen.

Sectors that were not as large a decade ago are emerging.

At the same time, gaps remain in exports, production, the transition to a first job, housing, and a number of long-term projects.

This may be the most useful way to use figures on a national occasion.

Not to use them merely to tell us how far we have come, but to help us understand what changed along the way and what should be monitored over the next four years through 2030.

About the report

The report “96 Years Read in Numbers” was prepared by a team of male and female students from Al Yamamah University in Riyadh: Arwa Al-Huwaity, Mohammed Al-Ghaiheb, and Nouf Al-Anazi, with the participation of Financial Analyst Assistant Abeer Al-Tuwaijri, under the supervision of Financial and Economic Analyst Hamad Al-Saeed, as part of the work of “Yamamah Insights” on the occasion of Saudi Arabia’s 96th National Day.

The report examines the performance of the Saudi economy through the second quarter of 2026 across nine areas, including the macroeconomy, public finances, the labor market, consumption and prices, real estate, tourism and the external sector, capital markets and foreign investment, and Vision 2030 projects and their indicators.

Read and download the full report: “96 Years Read in Numbers — The Saudi Economy on the 96th National Day.”
96 Years Read in Numbers
96 years read in numbers