We, as college students standing at the threshold of graduation, are planning our professional futures amid unprecedented acceleration in the economic and technical landscape. But amid this momentum, a fundamental question emerges that bridges economics and sociology: Is the idea of "forming a family and having children" still a safe economic and social decision?

In a recent analytical article published in the New York Times by author "Anna Louie Sussman," attention was drawn to the phenomenon of sharp global decline in birth rates. Interestingly, the article dismantles traditional theories that have long linked childbearing to financial capacity alone, introducing a new concept known as "Demographic Uncertainty Theory."

The Rich Country Puzzle: Why Is Government Support Not Enough?

For a long time, economists and demographers assumed that economic improvement and increased equality would inevitably stabilize birth rates. But recent data proved the opposite:

  • The Scandinavian Paradox: Countries like Sweden, Norway, and Denmark, which boast the strongest social safety nets, generous parental leave, and stable economies, have experienced continuous decline in birth rates since the 2008 economic recession.
  • United States: Births have fallen by 23% since 2007. Notably, this decline affected less-educated groups more severely, with births among American women without college degrees declining by 12% (meaning a loss of approximately 3.1 million potential births), while the decline was lower (7%) among holders of advanced degrees.

These figures lead us to one conclusion: The issue is not merely "affordability," but a structural and psychological concern about the future.

"Shadow of the Future" and the Era of Multiple Crises (Polycrisis)

Demographic researcher "Daniel Finoli" points out that the decision to have children no longer depends only on "shadow of the past" (Do I have a job now? Am I educated?), but has become governed by "shadow of the future" (Will I find an alternative job if I lose mine? What will the world look like tomorrow?).

We live in what philosophers call the era of Multiple Crises (Polycrisis), where economic and technical factors intertwine to create an environment of absolute uncertainty, manifested in:

  1. Artificial Intelligence (A.I.): New generations (Gen Z) find themselves in direct competition with artificial intelligence technologies for entry-level positions, threatening long-term job stability.
  2. Greedy Jobs: As economic expert "Claudia Goldin" describes them, these are jobs that require complete engagement extending beyond official work hours, making the balance between intensive work demands and child-rearing nearly impossible.
  3. Asset Inflation and Cost of Living: Rising housing costs (in the United States, the average age of first-time home buyers reached 40 years), which is naturally reflected in rapidly growing major cities like Riyadh, where homeownership and housing stability have become an economic challenge that delays marriage and childbearing decisions.

Can Money Buy Births? South Korea's Experience

Facing the world's lowest fertility rate (0.8 births per woman), a South Korean construction company (Booyoung Group) offered a massive incentive of approximately $68,000 (twice the average annual individual income) to each employee who has a child. The result? Births among employees rose by 60%.

Yet, despite this individual pilot's success, it raises a question: Do countries need massive budgets to compensate for individuals' feeling of insecurity? Traditional policies (such as simple tax exemptions) have proven ineffective because they are merely band-aid solutions that don't address fear of labor market fluctuations or inflating education and housing costs.

The Social and Religious Dimension: Free Buffers Against "Uncertainty"

In the midst of this economic pessimism, a remarkable exception highlighted by the article emerges. Religious communities maintain significantly higher fertility rates. According to researchers, "Faith" provides an effective and low-cost strategy for reducing uncertainty; it grants individuals a cohesive social support network and offers spiritual certainty that the future is in good hands.

Here emerges a strong economic and social advantage in our Saudi society. Despite recent economic challenges, labor market pressures, and rising cost of living in major cities, the institution of family still enjoys strong support from our religious and social values. Family cooperation and community cohesion in our society act as natural "buffers" that absorb shocks of economic uncertainty and make the decision to have children supported by a psychological and social safety net unavailable in Western societies suffering from rising individualism and isolation.

Global reluctance to have children is not merely "change in priorities," but a desperate attempt to create a stable foundation in a world marked by turmoil. Solving this demographic dilemma will not occur merely through injecting money or offering incentives, but requires comprehensive restructuring of labor markets and creating an economic environment that restores to young generations their right to feel "certainty" about their future.