How do you read car sales figures?

Lessons from BYD in September 2026
When BYD announced that it had sold 463,561 vehicles in September, up 17% from a year earlier, the news seemed straightforward. But behind that figure are five concepts that can help you understand today’s auto industry.

1. What does “new energy vehicles” mean?
BYD sells two types: battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which run solely on battery power, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which combine an electric motor with a gasoline engine. In September, fully electric vehicle sales rose markedly, while plug-in hybrid sales declined (according to electrive). This gives you an indication of where the market is headed: companies are gradually shifting toward fully electric vehicles, but hybrids still account for a substantial share of sales.

2. Why are Chinese companies pushing their cars abroad?
Because the domestic market is weak. BYD’s sales in China fell 13% year over year in September and were down 30.2% in the first nine months. Reports point to two reasons: the scaling back of government incentives for electric vehicles and the property crisis, which has squeezed household budgets. When the market becomes saturated and a price war intensifies, exports are a natural way to make use of production capacity.
As a result, its exports over nine months reached around 1.34 million vehicles—more than its total exports for all of 2025.

3. Exporting or manufacturing locally?
Shipping from China to Europe is costly and exposes companies to tariffs and trade restrictions, so manufacturers are moving toward building factories closer to their target markets. BYD has established local factories in Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand and Uzbekistan, and is preparing its factory in Hungary. This means the distinction between “China sales” and “overseas sales” is no longer entirely clear-cut: a car made in Thailand and sold there may count as an overseas sale without actually being “exported.” Many readers miss this point.

4. Why does the battery matter?
BYD began as a manufacturer of rechargeable batteries for phones and electronics before moving into cars. This background helps explain some of its competitive strength: when you make the most expensive component in a car yourself, you can control costs and lower prices. That is what concerns competitors in the markets BYD enters.

5. How do you read the indicators?
- Year-over-year versus month-over-month comparisons: BYD’s sales rose 17% from September 2025, but September exports were 4.6% below August’s record. Year-over-year growth can conceal a monthly slowdown.
- Cumulative figures and targets: Total sales since the start of the year are around 3.13 million vehicles, about 4% below last year and well short of the 5 million to 5.5 million target. A strong month does not mean the year is going well.
- Export share: This rose to 39% of sales, up from 18% a year ago, revealing more about the company’s changing business model than sales volume figures do.

6. Why are hybrids particularly controversial?
The European Union is asking China to limit shipments of hybrid vehicles to Europe, a category that accounts for more than 40% of BYD’s passenger car sales. The lesson is that export success remains dependent on trade policies and can change quickly following a government decision.

What can we learn?
1. One figure is not enough; you need to compare it with the same period last year, the previous month and the target.
2. Weak domestic demand can push companies into your markets.
3. Tariffs and trade restrictions push companies toward local manufacturing, not withdrawal.
4. Strong growth does not eliminate risks—and that is what led a bank such as JPMorgan to downgrade its stock rating to “Neutral.”