The main market at Tadawul welcomes the listing and commencement of trading of "Dar Al-Balad" shares, which specializes in business solutions, information technology, and industrial services, after the subscription period that witnessed notable interest from institutions and investment funds. This listing is a model for partial exit offerings, allowing students from Al-Yamamah University the opportunity to analyze the financial data for the upcoming period and forecast the stock's movement.

Structure of the Offering and Investment Demand

Student Fay Abdullah @Fay Aldossari opened the financial reading by analyzing the subscription numbers, drawing attention to the nature of the offering: "The sale of owners of 30% of their stake and directing the proceeds for their personal benefit (partial exit) is a common practice in financial markets to benefit from the establishment phase that has been ongoing since 2001. The positive point is that the owners still retain the larger percentage of 70%, reflecting their continued commitment to the company. However, on the other hand, it should be noted that the company's budget has not received new liquidity for expansion, and thus its future growth will depend on its retained earnings and operational efficiency.

She added that the allocation data indicates that the minimum allocated for individuals may affect trading behavior on the first day, as this may reduce their desire for quick selling due to the low financial value, and may drive some to increase their positions through buying. Meanwhile, funds that achieved a coverage ratio of 66 times may attempt to buy from the screen to compensate for the shortfall in their allocated shares. Based on the total valuation of 682.5 million riyals and the offering price of 9.75 riyals, we observe optimism from institutions in the technology sector, although the volatility rate of 30% requires calm monitoring; the closest expectation is that the stock will open at the maximum increase to reach 12.65 riyals due to the limited supply."

Liquidity Movement and Performance Sustainability

For her part, student @Shahad Al-Muhaysin focused on the relationship between demand size and price movement range: "The most prominent point in this subscription is the high demand from funds and institutions against the limited quantities available for individuals. This disparity, with a volatility rate of 30% in the early days, will create a kind of competition for liquidity and quantities on the screen; the market does not move solely on financial numbers but is also influenced by trader behavior.

As for the partial exit of the owners, it does not necessarily indicate a negative signal, but it may be a rearrangement of financial positions, and the real test remains the company's ability to maintain its growth levels after the listing."

Valuation Assessment and Profit Quality

In this context, student Rimas Almashali @Rimas Almashali provided an investment perspective on the quality of the offering: "The strong demand from institutions reflects initial confidence in the stock, but it is important for investors to distinguish between capital increase offerings for expansion purposes and partial exit offerings by owners as is the case here.

The weak allocation for individuals may increase volatility in the first session, as some may prefer quick selling to benefit from the price difference, while large portfolios may exploit this supply for accumulation. Regarding the valuation, the stock will initially be influenced by demand momentum and expectations more than its reliance on current results, and the essence of investment lies in the company's ability to prove its operational efficiency after the initial subscription wave calms down."

Determinants of Fair Valuation

For his part, student Mohammad Alghaihab @Mohammad Alghaihab presented a reading balancing the offering data: "The high coverage gives a positive signal of ongoing demand at the beginning of the listing. The limited allocation for individuals may push some of them towards quick selling, but on the other hand, there is a desire from larger investment entities to accumulate additional quantities. The point of owners exiting is a normal practice, but it raises questions about the company's operational plans to continue growing without new liquidity from the offering. The offering size of 21 million shares provides good liquidity for the stock in the main market, but the fairness of the valuation of 682.5 million riyals is not measured by the number of shares but by comparing the company's profits and growth with similar companies in the sector, with individuals needing to deal cautiously with the 30% volatility."

Price Expectations for the First Session

Student Farida Ahmed @Farida Ahmed concluded the discussion with a summary of the expected stock movement: "In short, this offering faces an equation of high institutional demand against very limited supply from individuals, which paves the way for a price increase at the beginning of trading due to the scarcity of shares available for purchase. Although the subscription proceeds will not enter the company's budget, the coverage ratio of 66 times confirms the funds' desire to accumulate from the market; thus, individuals should consider the 30% volatility to avoid hasty decisions. Based on this momentum, I expect the stock to witness a strong opening to close at the maximum allowed for the first day, which is 12.68 riyals, targeting levels between 13 and 16 riyals in the following days if demand continues at its current pace."

Expert Opinion:

Professor Abdulaziz Khrais believes that this listing is number 2 in 2026, and compared to 2025, we notice that the rate of listings has generally decreased; this is due to several reasons, the most prominent of which are geopolitical conditions, in addition to market conditions that have not been encouraging for the offering of more companies.

And until the middle of the first session, the stock's performance gives a very positive impression to investors; it is currently trading with an increase exceeding 20%, which is an indicator that may contribute to stimulating upcoming companies and giving them great optimism about the feasibility of the offering, especially since the past periods have seen several companies break their offering price since the first day of listing.