Apple was not the first company to launch a touchscreen phone, but it helped turn the technology into a mass-market product. Today, it is making the same bet with the foldable iPhone Duo: entering a category that has existed for years, then attempting to redefine it commercially.

But the economic question is not whether the phone folds. It is: Can Apple turn an expensive, niche technology into a new growth cycle in a smartphone market that has reached maturity?

A Mature Market Looking for a New Reason to Buy

Apple unveiled its foldable phone at a starting price of $1,999, clearly placing it in the premium-device segment. This comes as annual improvements to conventional phones have become less effective at persuading consumers to replace their devices regularly.

That is why Apple is not betting merely on selling a different design, but on creating a new use case that combines the portability of a phone with a screen area closer to that of a tablet. The product’s success depends on the larger screen’s ability to deliver tangible value, such as running multiple apps, holding work meetings, and viewing content more effectively.

If consumers feel that a foldable phone offers nothing more than a new form factor, it will remain a niche product. But if it changes how people use their phones, it could give companies a stronger reason to raise prices and encourage a new replacement cycle.

The Advantage of Entering Late

Samsung entered the foldable-phone market in 2019, while Chinese company Royole preceded it by launching the first commercial device of its kind in 2018. Early generations faced problems with screen durability, the visibility of the crease, and battery life, in addition to high prices.

Apple’s wait gave it what is known as the second-mover advantage: observing the mistakes of earlier companies, then entering after screens, hinges, and manufacturing technologies had improved.

But entering late does not guarantee success. Samsung and Huawei have accumulated years of experience, as well as established user bases and more thoroughly tested supply chains. Apple will therefore need to prove that the device’s integration with its operating system and apps can make up for its experience gap.

What Changes Behind the Device?

Economically, the impact of launching the phone extends beyond Apple’s sales. Expanding the category could increase demand for a more specialized range of components, including:

  • Flexible screens capable of withstanding repeated folding.
  • Precision hinges that reduce the device’s thickness.
  • Multilayer protective and adhesive materials.
  • Smaller batteries and components.
  • Maintenance, insurance, and protection services.

This is where the significance of a company the size of Apple becomes apparent. When supply chains anticipate stable demand and larger volumes, investment in production lines and research and development becomes easier to justify. As production rises, efficiency may improve and component costs may gradually decline, allowing foldable devices to emerge in broader price segments in the future.

But the opposite trend is also possible. Manufacturing complexity could increase defect rates and warranty and repair costs, while competition for screens, memory, and advanced components could place additional pressure on costs.

Will Apple Expand the Market or Merely Redistribute Its Shares?

Foldable phones have represented a limited share of the global smartphone market despite years of development. According to IDC, as reported by Reuters, shipments are expected to grow by around 30% in 2026, compared with an expected decline of about 1.4% for non-foldable phones.

These figures do not mean that foldable phones will quickly become the dominant category. Rather, they indicate growth from a small base within a traditional market experiencing slow growth.

The real test is where Apple’s sales come from: Will the phone attract new consumers to the category, or will it shift users of foldable devices from Samsung and Huawei to Apple? In the first case, the market expands; in the second, market shares are merely redistributed within a category that remains limited.

What Does This Mean for the Saudi Market?

The published material does not provide independent data on expected demand in Saudi Arabia, so it is impossible to determine how quickly the device will gain local traction. However, the most immediate impact is likely to appear first in retail and services associated with premium devices.

Telecom companies and retailers may compete through installment plans, trade-in programs, insurance, and maintenance. Monthly payments and repair terms will become more important in the purchase decision, because the complexity of the screen and hinge could make the device’s total cost of ownership higher than its purchase price alone.

As for the opportunity for local manufacturing, it does not arise automatically from selling the device in the Kingdom. Industrial benefits would require local companies to enter a specific part of the value chain, such as components, advanced maintenance, or recycling, rather than simply relying on increased consumption.

The Test Begins After Launch

The success of the iPhone Duo will not be measured by the buzz surrounding its announcement or by the sellout of the initial units, but by its ability to retain users after the novelty wears off, lower failure rates, and the emergence of apps that genuinely take advantage of the foldable screen.

If that happens, Apple may not have merely launched a new phone; it may have helped create a new economic category within a market that many believed had reached the limits of its growth.